Why Cooper Flagg Should Skip Duke and Go Straight to the NBA

In the ever-evolving landscape of college basketball, the decision for young talents like Cooper Flagg to stay in school or enter the NBA Draft has become increasingly complex. Even in the NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) era, the financial implications of returning to Duke for another season may not be in Flagg’s best interest.

The Financial Upside of Entering the NBA Draft

Under the NBA rookie salary scale, Cooper Flagg stands to earn a staggering $13.8 million during his debut season in the league, according to Spotrac NBA salary cap analyst Keith Smith. This initial contract could pave the way for even more lucrative earnings in subsequent years, with projections of $14.5 million in year two, $15.2 million in year three, and a whopping $19.2 million in year four. Following this rookie deal, Flagg would be eligible for a potentially massive second contract, which could be worth three to four times as much per season.

Potential NIL Earnings at Duke

If Flagg were to delay his NBA career and return to Duke, he would undoubtedly benefit from the NIL market. Estimates suggest that he could earn between $6 to $8 million in NIL money as a sophomore, thanks to pay-to-play agreements and endorsement deals with established brands. Austin Walton, CEO of Next Sports Agency, believes this figure could be conservative, given Flagg’s potential marketability.

Chris Brown, COO of Blueprint Sports, emphasizes that Flagg would have significant bargaining power if he returned to college. “He’d know what that guaranteed contract would be worth as the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft and he’d be able to see how much Duke really needs him. His value would go way up,” Brown told Yahoo Sports.

The Risks of Staying in College

Despite the allure of NIL earnings, experts in the NIL space argue that returning to Duke could be a financially unwise decision for Flagg. The injury risk is a significant factor, as is the possibility of another highly-touted prospect overshadowing him as the top draft choice. However, the most pressing concern is the long-term financial implications of delaying his entry into the NBA.

Long-Term Financial Consequences

Consider this: if Flagg’s NBA team offers him a max contract after year four of his rookie deal, he could be looking at a five-year extension worth an estimated $328.3 million. This would translate to a starting salary of 25% of his team’s salary cap, equating to approximately $56.6 million for the 2029-30 season. If Flagg excels and earns All-NBA honors, he could command an even larger contract, potentially reaching $393.9 million over the course of the deal, with a staggering $67.9 million for the 2029-30 season.

However, if Flagg opts to remain at Duke until after his sophomore year, he risks missing out on these lucrative opportunities. By the time he enters the NBA Draft, he would still be on his rookie deal, delaying his financial ascent.

Conclusion: The Smart Move for Cooper Flagg

In conclusion, while the NIL era offers exciting opportunities for college athletes, the financial realities of Cooper Flagg’s situation suggest that entering the NBA Draft is the most prudent choice. The potential earnings from a rookie contract and subsequent extensions far outweigh the benefits of returning to Duke, even with the enticing NIL deals available. Flagg’s future is bright, and the NBA is calling.

For more insights on Cooper Flagg’s decision, check out the original article here.