Bitcoin’s Supply Gap: Insights on Price Movements Between $70K-$80K

Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing price pullback could accelerate below $80K, as on-chain analysis by Glassnode indicates that the $10K price range beneath this level was marked by weak economic activity late last year. BTC prices quickly rose from $70K to above $80K in early November after pro crypto Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidential election. As a result, very little BTC changed hands between those levels, leaving a so-called “supply gap,” as evident from Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart.

Understanding the Supply Gap

This metric tracks the price points at which existing bitcoin UTXOs were last moved. Each bar represents the volume of bitcoin that last changed hands within a specific price range. The data is entity-adjusted, meaning it assigns an average purchase price for each entity, categorizing its full balance accordingly. Bitcoin’s rapid surge from the mid-$60K to over $100K following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory left little supply accumulation in the $70K to $80K range, as it traded only for a few days between these levels.

Market Dynamics and Price Movements

In other words, the total number of traders with acquisition prices between $70K and $80K is likely to be far less than at other levels. So, a move below $80K will likely see very little bargain hunting from holders looking to buy more at their acquisition costs, thus ensuring little support before $73K, the all-time high set in March 2024.

Current Market Conditions

Besides, as bitcoin currently consolidates above $80K, approximately 20% of the total supply is currently at a loss—meaning these holdings were purchased above the current price of $83K. These wallets could add to the selling pressure below $80K, leading to a quick slide. Glassnode data shows that approximately 100,000 BTC have been sold due to the price correction.

Impact of Supply and Demand

While the lack of supply and current tepid demand has already contributed to bitcoin’s 30% pullback from its all-time high of $108K, the dynamics of supply and demand are crucial in understanding the future price movements of Bitcoin. As traders and investors analyze these trends, the potential for further price corrections remains a significant concern.

Expert Insights: James Van Straten

James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.

Advisory Role and Investments

In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR). His insights into the market dynamics and potential future trends are invaluable for traders and investors alike.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bitcoin Market

As Bitcoin continues to navigate through these turbulent waters, understanding the implications of the supply gap between $70K and $80K is essential for making informed investment decisions. The interplay of market dynamics, expert analysis, and ongoing price movements will shape the future of Bitcoin trading.

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