61% Chance of US Recession in 2025: Kalshi Prediction Market Insights

61% Chance of US Recession in 2025 Revealed

The odds of a US recession in 2025 have surged to over 61% on Kalshi prediction markets, following President Trump’s recent tariff order, raising significant concerns about the economic landscape ahead.

Background and Context

The recent surge in the US recession prediction markets 2025 reflects rising concerns about the country’s economic stability. Following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order issued on April 2, the probability of a recession has soared to over 61% on Kalshi. This alarming shift mirrors historical scenarios where trade policies significantly impacted economic forecasts, such as the 2008 financial crisis, which was preceded by similar patterns in the market.

As traders react to these changes, the implications extend beyond mere numbers; a recession threatens job security and market confidence. Trump’s executive order imposes a baseline tariff of 10% on all imports, targeting countries with existing tariffs on American goods, thereby igniting fears of a global trade war. This turbulence has already led to a staggering $5 trillion loss in stock market value within days, raising apprehensions of a prolonged economic downturn.

The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 is fraught with uncertainty, prompting analysts to closely monitor the US recession prediction markets 2025. Current estimates are in line with predictions from other platforms, highlighting a broad consensus about the challenges lying ahead for the U.S. economy.

Kalshi Traders Predict a 61% Chance of US Recession in 2025

The latest predictions in the US recession prediction markets 2025 reveal a significant surge in pessimism among investors. Following President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff order signed on April 2, traders on Kalshi currently place the odds of a recession at over 61%. This represents a dramatic increase from previous estimates and aligns closely with the 60% odds reflected on Polymarket.

Kalshi bases its predictions on the standard recession criteria set by the United States Department of Commerce, which defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Recent events have demonstrated a severe impact on market sentiment.

Market Reaction and Economic Implications

The announcement of a baseline 10% tariff, coupled with varied “reciprocal” rates for different trading partners, triggered an immediate sell-off in U.S. stock markets. Analysts estimated that over $5 trillion in shareholder value was wiped away in the aftermath of the tariff announcement. Furthermore, the growing consensus among market analysts points towards fears of a prolonged trade war that could adversely affect global markets and suppress risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.

Political Commentary

Despite this turmoil, President Trump remains optimistic, asserting on April 3 that the tariffs will ultimately bolster the US economy. “The markets are going to boom,” he stated, while also pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. Some analysts, including asset manager Anthony Pompliano, speculate that the President’s actions may be part of a strategy to force a recession to facilitate lower rates.

As the situation develops, the sentiment in the US recession prediction markets 2025 will continue to reflect changing economic conditions and investor confidence.

Analysis of US Recession Prediction Markets 2025

The recent spike in the odds of a US recession in 2025, now placed at over 61% on prediction markets like Kalshi, signals a stark shift in economic sentiment among traders. Following President Trump’s introduction of sweeping tariffs, market participants have reacted swiftly, reflecting heightened fears of prolonged economic instability. This prediction reflects not only immediate concerns but a growing apprehension regarding the future, indicating that stakeholders are bracing for potential downturns in GDP growth.

The implications for the market are significant. Investors may become increasingly risk-averse, impacting asset prices across various sectors, including cryptocurrencies and equities. The perceived threat of a trade war could suppress investment in riskier assets and lead to volatility as investors flee to safer havens. As the odds of a US recession in 2025 continue to rise, market analysts will closely monitor ongoing trade negotiations and fiscal policies coming from the administration.

What This Means for Stakeholders

Increased market volatility and cautious investment strategies.
Potential shifts in monetary policy as the Federal Reserve responds to changing economic conditions.
Growing demand for analysis and insights related to US recession prediction markets 2025 to inform decision-making.