Kalshi Traders See Over 61% Odds of US Recession in 2025

Kalshi Traders Report 61% Odds of US Recession in 2025

The recent sweeping tariff order by President Donald Trump has led traders on the Kalshi prediction market to forecast a staggering 61% chance of a US recession in 2025, reflecting a dramatic increase in economic uncertainty.

Background and Context

The recent surge in the odds of US recession 2025 highlights a growing concern among traders and economists regarding the nation’s economic stability. The prediction market Kalshi reported a rise to over 61% odds, significantly driven by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order, which has sent shockwaves through capital markets. Historical precedents, such as the 2008 financial crisis, inform current fears, reinforcing the urgency of understanding economic indicators and their implications.

With tariffs set at 10% for all nations and retaliatory measures against countries with existing tariffs, the risk of a prolonged trade war looms large. Trump’s tariffs, viewed by some as a strategic move to recalibrate trade balances, have instead incited a dramatic sell-off across markets, erasing $5 trillion in shareholder value within days. Many analysts consider this a turbulent period reminiscent of past recessions where trade disputes escalated economic downturns.

As the odds of US recession 2025 approach 61%, the sentiment among traders reflects an environment of uncertainty that could have ramifications far beyond domestic markets, potentially influencing global economies and asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

Kalshi Traders Project Over 61% Odds of US Recession in 2025

As global uncertainties mount, traders on the Kalshi prediction market have set the odds of a US recession in 2025 at a staggering 61%. This significant spike comes in the wake of President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff order signed on April 2, which has sent ripples through financial markets.

The criteria for determining a recession, as defined by the United States Department of Commerce, involves two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Since March 20, the likelihood of a recession on Kalshi’s platform has nearly doubled, evidencing traders’ growing concerns about the economic outlook for 2025. These trends are echoed on competing platforms like Polymarket, where current estimates also hover around 60%.

Impact of Tariffs on the Market

Following President Trump’s announcement of a baseline 10% tariff rate on imports, a dramatic sell-off in the stock market ensued, erasing over $5 trillion in shareholder value almost instantly. “The markets are going to boom,” Trump stated, exuding confidence in his economic strategy, despite the tumult felt across global markets.

• Market analysts are voicing fears of a prolonged trade war.
• Risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies, are under significant pressure.

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano suggested that Trump’s tactics may aim to influence interest rates, as evidenced by a drop in 10-year US Treasury bond rates from 4.66% in January 2025 to 4.00% by April 5. Coupled with pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut rates, all signs point to a bleak economic forecast if the trends of low growth continue.

As the fear of a recession in 2025 grows, investors remain wary, highlighting the turbulent intersection of trade policies and market dynamics.

Kalshi Prediction Market Indicates Growing Recession Fears

The recent spike in the odds of a US recession in 2025 to over 61% on Kalshi reflects a significant shift in market sentiment following President Trump’s imposition of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. This development marks a critical juncture for the US economy, as traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket increasingly anticipate negative growth ahead. As the prediction of a recession approaches two-thirds likelihood, it highlights the potential for prolonged economic uncertainty after the sudden market sell-off that erased over $5 trillion in value.

The ramifications of this scenario are profound, affecting not only traditional stock markets but also influencing risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies, which are particularly vulnerable in turbulent economic climates. Industry analysts are now calling for close monitoring of both the trade policies and their market responses, as the odds of a US recession in 2025 echo broader concerns about the stability of global financial markets

Market Implications and Insights

• Increased caution from investors may lead to a sustained bearish trend across various asset classes.
• Heightened volatility could create both challenges and opportunities for traders and investors alike.

These developments necessitate a strategic response from stakeholders and underscore the importance of staying informed about changing economic indicators.